Category Archives: Hong Kong Trading

China Vanke Shoots For New Board, No Barbarians Allowed

Embattled China Vanke, hk 2202, has finally set a meeting to vote for a new Board, the current term having expired in March of 2017.Vanke Board

Source: Hk Filings, latest

Out: Wang Shi, Vanke founder, China Re Representatives & Blackstone. In: SZMC with equal representation to Vanke.  The board also appears to have some new diversity with non-related representatives.

What’s Missing: Baoneng, Anbang.

The major reason for the delay in the new vote was to ensure Vanke executives maintain control, or at least split it with an entity of their choosing, despite their minority ownership interests.  They’ve been aided in their quest from outside sources.

  • China Re, which owned 15.3%, agreed to transfer them to Shenzhen Metro, SZMC.
  • China Evergrande, 3333 hk, a competing developer which had been stockpiling shares, volunteered transferring its voting rights to SZMC.
  • Evergrande officially sold the shares, at a loss to its original cost, to SZMC.  (No, Evergrande isn’t a charity – they are pursuing a back-door listing in Shenzhen which will very possibly be aided by this gesture).
  • Other heavy owner & tagged a barbarian, Baoneng, was prohibited from selling certain insurance products and its Chairman was prohibited from insurance for 10 years.
  • Vanke started a lawsuit in February, 2017, to invalidate Baoneng’s shares based on its use of leveraged products to acquire them.

Despite all these visible moves, the fact remains that Baoneng still holds 25.4% of the company’s shares and would be assumed to have a legitimate reason to expect Board representation.  The executives from Vanke’s side own a minor percentage of shares. Another insurance company, Anbang, also owns a significant amount of shares.

Baoneng Owner

Source: HK filings

The June Meeting, Friday the 30th of June, should be an interesting one.  Although the stock has been rising on the news, it’s still too early to know if the proposal will get the 2/3 majority needed.

 

 

 

 

High Flyer BBMG Announces Net Profit Growth Over 100%

bbmg stock up

Data Source: Bloomberg

BBMG 2009 HK, announced 4/11/2017 at 21:27 a positive profit to net shareholders in the range of 380 Million rmb to 450 Million rmb for the first quarter.  The first quarter net profit to shareholders was at 150 Million rmb, indicating a rise of 152% to 199%.

No revenues, shares outstanding or eps estimates were given.  The company stated that the rise was due to an increase in booked GFA in its property sector as well as better pricing on cement and clinker.   As shown  here,  property development profits dropped by 48% in the annual statement.  In that same article, it mentions caution needed since the incorporation of Jidong cement has greatly increased both assets, liabilities and leverage.

BBMG rose over 42% last week, after the surpise weekend announcement of a new economic zone, Xiongan New Zone, an area where BBMG dominates in the building material segment.

Xiongan New Zone Hong Kong Stock Weekly Wrap

As mentioned in an earlier post,  at least 14 Hong Kong listed stocks showed a one day ramp up after the surprise announcement last weekend of a new economic zone, the Xiongan New Zone.

Xiongan New Area

Buoyed by the belief that this triangular area will be the next Shenzhen, at least 14 stocks moved sharply upwards on Monday in Hong Kong, following the weekend announcement.

For the week, 5 of the 14 stocks had a weekly change which resulted in a lower weekly move than that on the first day, indicating some rethinking of the over the top optimism on the relatively vague news.

econ zone upd1

econ zone upd2

The stellar performer was building materials and property owner and manager, BBMG 2009 HK.   The move on this large-cap,  industrial and real estate company was so unexpected that the company itself warned investors to be rational.   In the same announcement, it admitted to supplying about 60% of the cement output for the designated region.  Citi picked it as a winner in the new zone,  Credit Suisse raised it to Outperform, with a target price of 5.8hkd to 6.4 hkd, while Morgan Stanley removed it from its focus list, dropped it to Underweight, stating that cement regional sales would increase about 8%/year, giving the most benefits to Jidong Cement.  As I wrote here, BBMG’s financials and recent asset, liability and workforce increases make its future performance unpredictable.

The other big weekly movers, with the exception of Steel stock China Oriental, 581 hk, would need to show major financial improvement in the first quarter of 2017 since annual results showed either minimal revenue or operating net profit before taxes growth.

Tianjun Jinrun 1265

As shown above, Tianjin Jinrun, 1265 hk, utility company actually had a decline in revenues and a minimal increase in net profit.  Thanks to the weekly move, its now at a lofty 31.39 trailing p/e despite its 2016 revenue drop.
Tianjin Cap 1065.PNG

While sewage treatment utility company Tianjin Capital, 1065 hk, showed a substantial net profit growth of 36% in 2016, its revenue only increased by a little over 1%, indicating that other, non-core and more volatile items contributed to the increase.

Beijing N Star 588

Despite the real estate company’s Beijing N Star 588 hk, revenue increase of 37%, its gross profit increased by only 2.4%% and its net profit actually dropped by 6.8%. It’s doubtful that the first quarter will show much improvement, which could result in an immediate drop in the stock price after the first quarter’s earnings release.

China Oriental 581

The steel company China Oriental, 581 hk, had an impressive increase in net profit from 2015, which followed through with an increase in gross profit in terms of dollars and margins while operating income went from a loss to a profit.  While its trailing p/e is only 9.39, the stock has increased by 124% over the past year.

Kunlun Energy 135

Natural gas-related utility Kunlun Energy, 135 hk, although increasing over 10% last week to reflect a trailing p/e of 97, would need significant positive impact from the new area to justify its latest rise.

(All annual performance numbers taken from hk filngs.)

China Anger with South Korea is Bad for Auto Stock BAIC

baic chart

China’s displeasure over South Korea’s move to allow the U.S to deploy the THAAD missile system on its territory is being felt by Hyundai.  Reports of lower production in China is bad news for BAIC 1958 hk, since Hyundai represents the largest portion of its unit sales.

BAIC hasn’t yet released its March sales. But year to date February sales and annual unit sales in 2016 indicate a large negative impact of a decline in Hyundai sales.

BAIC Jan Feb Sales.PNG

baic annual auto sales

BAIC closed down on 4/5/17 but hasn’t yet reported March sales. While it makes the biggest profit from its subsidiary, Beijing Benz, at 55% to 60% of its unit sales, a decline in Hyundai sales will hurt.

Auto Stocks Hong Kong Listed

 

Li Ka-Shing Digging Down Under

Three of 88 year old billionaires Li Ka-Shing’s companies approved a Joint Venture to buy Australia’s energy utility company, Duet, DUE ASX for $7.4 AUD ($5.5 USD).   The purchase, originally announced in November with a price rise in December, had already been approved by the Duet board but still has to get past Australian regulators. The involved companies are as follows: CKPH, 1113 HK, CKI, 1038 HK, PAH, 6 HK and Duet, DUE ASX.

Li Ka Shing Duet

Although Li Ka-Shing, his son and trust ownership had to abstain, given the percentage owned it’s not surprising the vote passed close to 100% for all three.

Li Ka Shing Ownership

Source: HK filing

The December 2016 offer of 3.00 AUD per share,  quickly bumped up the stock from its prior close of $2.35 to $2.71 and eventually to a peak of $2.92, but has since slid downward, with its year to date performance lagging that of the ASX 200.

Despite Li Ka-Shing’s assertions that the deal will pass the Foreign Investment Review Board, FIRB, his recent rejection to purchase a majority share in Ausgrid, owned by the New South Wales government, weighs on the stock price of DUE.

duet DUE stock

Stock Symbol DUE; Bloomberg

As to the Hong Kong stocks involved, only CKPH, the property holding stock, has come close to matching the Hang Seng’s rise.  For an interesting take on this, read the Bloomberg gadfly article.

Hong Kong and Mainland Stocks Continue to Rise

Thanks to Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs bullish notes on China, the Hang Seng and Shanghai composite continued their positive runs.  Goldman cited China economic growth as well as Xi’s incentive to keep things going well prior to the  19th Communist Party Congress in the fourth quarter of 2017.

HANG SENG SHANGHAI COMP

Data Source: Bloomberg

Practically all sectors were go for the Hang Seng, from banks to developers to consumer stocks.  The top 20 were as follows:

HANG SENG TOP 20

Data Source:  aastocks.com

Most Hang Seng stocks were up, with only 5 of the bottom 10 performers in negative territory.

HANG SENG BOTTOM 10

Data source: aastocks.com

 

China Bank Rally Takes A Breather

After a series of moves and reviews, the big 5 Chinese banks blasted upwards in February, outpacing the rocketing Hang Seng.  Over the past couple of days, however, they’ve retrenched.   If Morgan Stanley and Short trading interest are to be believed, this is a temporary reversal.

The banks include:

Name Acronym HK symbol
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China ICBC 1398
China Construction Bank CCB 939
Agricultural Bank of China ABC 1288
Bank of China BOC 3988
Bank of Communications BOCOM 3328

Despite rising Non performing loans, shrinking net interest margins and capital requirements, these banks have surpassed the rising Hang Seng thanks to interest rate rises, increased lending, China stimulus and PPI rises.

big-banks-rally-feb-2017

Timeline of positive factors:

1/24/2017 – Interest rates raised on medium term rates on loans.

2/03/2017 – Interest rates raised on short-term debt, reportedly in the interests of liquidity due to perceived resulting from the Chinese New Year.

2/14/2017 – Morgan Stanley published a bullish report on China Banks. Banks.

2/15/2017 – Bloomberg reported that options trading reacted positively to the bullish stance of Morgan Stanley on the big 4 banks, (all of banks listed above excluding BOCOM, which isn’t included in the  big 4).

None of these banks have reported annual earnings.  While earnings seasons has just about ended in the US, annual earnings reports for Hong Kong listed stocks are trickling in.  Regardless of the annual earnings, they won’t reflect the February 2017 change in interest rates and producer price inflation which Morgan Stanley reports.

Given the significant decline in short-term selling ratios for all but BOC, 3988 HK, the recent drop could signify a temporary drop versus a long-term decline.  At least for the short-term.