Category Archives: China Stocks

China Vanke Shoots For New Board, No Barbarians Allowed

Embattled China Vanke, hk 2202, has finally set a meeting to vote for a new Board, the current term having expired in March of 2017.Vanke Board

Source: Hk Filings, latest

Out: Wang Shi, Vanke founder, China Re Representatives & Blackstone. In: SZMC with equal representation to Vanke.  The board also appears to have some new diversity with non-related representatives.

What’s Missing: Baoneng, Anbang.

The major reason for the delay in the new vote was to ensure Vanke executives maintain control, or at least split it with an entity of their choosing, despite their minority ownership interests.  They’ve been aided in their quest from outside sources.

  • China Re, which owned 15.3%, agreed to transfer them to Shenzhen Metro, SZMC.
  • China Evergrande, 3333 hk, a competing developer which had been stockpiling shares, volunteered transferring its voting rights to SZMC.
  • Evergrande officially sold the shares, at a loss to its original cost, to SZMC.  (No, Evergrande isn’t a charity – they are pursuing a back-door listing in Shenzhen which will very possibly be aided by this gesture).
  • Other heavy owner & tagged a barbarian, Baoneng, was prohibited from selling certain insurance products and its Chairman was prohibited from insurance for 10 years.
  • Vanke started a lawsuit in February, 2017, to invalidate Baoneng’s shares based on its use of leveraged products to acquire them.

Despite all these visible moves, the fact remains that Baoneng still holds 25.4% of the company’s shares and would be assumed to have a legitimate reason to expect Board representation.  The executives from Vanke’s side own a minor percentage of shares. Another insurance company, Anbang, also owns a significant amount of shares.

Baoneng Owner

Source: HK filings

The June Meeting, Friday the 30th of June, should be an interesting one.  Although the stock has been rising on the news, it’s still too early to know if the proposal will get the 2/3 majority needed.

 

 

 

 

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Great Wall Motors Zooms Upward on Fumes

WEY Great Wall wey

Despite CAAM’S report of another month of declining auto sales in China, Great Wall Motors, Hk 2333, powered above all its peers.

Auto Stocks May 2017The report for overall passenger sales in China, issued by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, CAAM, showed a May year on year decline of 2.6% following an April decline of 3.7%.  A decline from last year’s 13.7% growth was expected after the sales tax drop on smaller engine vehicles from 10% to 5% went up to 7.5%.  (63% of cars sold in 2016 were 1.6 liters or less, the maximum size for the tax incentive.) With the decline in the tax incentive, expected sales growth for 2017 is only 5%.  Thus far, sales have been running below those expectations.

Defying the letdown, Great Wall rocketed up over 21%.  The apparent reason: a positive upgrade by Credit Suisse.  Thanks to the pending introduction of the WEY brand luxurious but affordable SUV, Credit Suisse raised the sales projections and profit projections for Great Wall.  Besides projecting impressive unit sales increases, a net profit increase over the popular Haval was seen at 5,000 rmb/unit. Although Credit Suisse lowered the 2017 earnings forecast by 14%, it raised the target price from $8 hkd to $12.5 hkd mainly on the basis of the projected sales growth and profits of the WEY.

WEY Sales Projections

Putting this in perspective, Great Wall  had the following sales in 2016: (from HK filings)

1Great Wall 2016

Thanks to both its emphasis on SUV’S and its Haval H6, Great Wall surpassed the industry average in 2016.  This increase also translated to profits.

2 Great Wall Fin 2016

Source: HK Filing

Sales Growth Slower in 2017

Like the industry, Great Wall has seen a drop in unit sales growth as well as profits for 2017.  In the first quarter, while overall China auto sales surprised with a rise of 7%, Great Wall exceeded that rise with a unit increase of 8.9%.  That increase, however, came at a cost as its net profit actually declined thanks to a gross profit drop from 25.3% to 22.1%.

3Great Wall q1

Source: HK Filing

Great Wall’s Unit Sales growth to date has slowed since the first quarter, particularly with the once popular but now aging Haval 6.  For May, the 3.76% drop was worse than the overall industry.

4Great Wall May

Source: HK Filing

Price Change Overshoots Short Term Prospects

While Credit Suisse may eventually be proven correct in its forecast, given the industry’s recent and projected performance, the untested demand for the WEY SUV, and the strong competition in the Chinese auto market, the rapid stock rise is unwarranted.  We are a long way from June’s sales reports and earnings for Great Wall shouldn’t be out until about 8/25/17.  Additionally, Great Wall, as are all China auto sellers, is entering the slowest part of the year for sales.

6 Great Wall Monthly Chart

Time to Hit the Brakes on Great Wall.

 

 

High Flyer BBMG Announces Net Profit Growth Over 100%

bbmg stock up

Data Source: Bloomberg

BBMG 2009 HK, announced 4/11/2017 at 21:27 a positive profit to net shareholders in the range of 380 Million rmb to 450 Million rmb for the first quarter.  The first quarter net profit to shareholders was at 150 Million rmb, indicating a rise of 152% to 199%.

No revenues, shares outstanding or eps estimates were given.  The company stated that the rise was due to an increase in booked GFA in its property sector as well as better pricing on cement and clinker.   As shown  here,  property development profits dropped by 48% in the annual statement.  In that same article, it mentions caution needed since the incorporation of Jidong cement has greatly increased both assets, liabilities and leverage.

BBMG rose over 42% last week, after the surpise weekend announcement of a new economic zone, Xiongan New Zone, an area where BBMG dominates in the building material segment.

Hong Kong Stocks Fly After the New Economic Zone is Announced

What’s in a Name?  If it’s got Beijing or Tianjin in it, a record breaking one day rise on Monday.

ezone table 1

Econ Zone Table Movers2

Large cap, small cap, these are the stocks which the market projected to gain from the newly-announced Xiong’an New Area, which has been heralded as the New Shenzhen. The area is to include the already robust areas of Beijing and Tianjin, while broadening to encompass the rust belt of Hebei province.   Not all the stocks had those names, but they were dominant in the movers. There is skepticism as to what this will really entail, Per a Reuters article.

In a strategy note, NSBO Research said it would be difficult for policymakers to replicate the boom of Shenzhen in Xiongan in the current environment of a slowing economy, but rather it would create another political center.

“It is essentially a greenfield site, with very little in the way of existing manufacturing expertise and no nearby financial centers to call upon,”, said Rafael Halpin, head of research at NSBO.

Nevertheless, the over-exuberance can be seen in the following charts. (The last close was for 4/3/2017 – the Hong Kong stock market was closed on 4/4/2017 for the Ching Ming Festival;  Shanghai and Shenzhen were closed on 4/3/2017 as well as 4/4/2017 so haven’t reflected the good news.)

ezone bbmg 2009

ezone china national building mat 3323

ezone china suntien 956

ezone tianjin dev 882.PNG

ezone Tianjin Jinrun Public Utilities 1265.PNG

ezone tianjin port 3382

ezone china oriental 581.PNG

 

ezone beijing oriental 581

ezone beijing n star 588

ezone capital land 2868.PNG

ezone beijing ent 392 final

ezone beijing urban construction 1599

ezone kunlun energy 135

Whether the rise will be justified remains to be seen.  However, the impact from a political announcement was substantial.

Hong Kong and Mainland Stocks Continue to Rise

Thanks to Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs bullish notes on China, the Hang Seng and Shanghai composite continued their positive runs.  Goldman cited China economic growth as well as Xi’s incentive to keep things going well prior to the  19th Communist Party Congress in the fourth quarter of 2017.

HANG SENG SHANGHAI COMP

Data Source: Bloomberg

Practically all sectors were go for the Hang Seng, from banks to developers to consumer stocks.  The top 20 were as follows:

HANG SENG TOP 20

Data Source:  aastocks.com

Most Hang Seng stocks were up, with only 5 of the bottom 10 performers in negative territory.

HANG SENG BOTTOM 10

Data source: aastocks.com